Western Balkans: Russia and China increasing their influence

The Western Balkans, comprising Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo (collectively referred to as WB6), are expected to become future EU member states. With over 80 percent of their trade conducted with the EU, these countries are aligning their legal standards and regulations with EU’s ones. The EU’s assistance to the Western Balkans has been enormous in quantity and profound in character.

 However, the past decade has seen a significant increase in the influence of “outsiders”. Despite its deteriorating credibility due to the invasion to Ukraine, Russia continues to exert considerable influence in the region, particularly through energy sector. Meanwhile, China has solidified its presence, as evidenced by President Xi Jinping's recent visit to Serbia, with some countries, like Serbia, deeply involved in China’s "Belt and Road" initiative.

 The EU has not been idle. In 2015, it earmarked EUR 1 billion for connectivity investment projects in the Western Balkans. In 2020, the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans was introduced, including significant initiatives in transport, energy, and digital connectivity.

 As a key EU partner, Japan is also playing its part. During the official visit by then Prime Minister Abe to Serbia in 2018, Japan has launched the Western Balkans Cooperation Initiative to support socio-economic reforms of WB6 toward their EU accession, as well as to facilitate cooperation within the region.

It is precisely on this basis that the EU-Japan Connectivity Partnership was agreed. With growing economic and political uncertainty both globally and regionally, and persistent ethnic divisions in the region, the importance of connectivity—and the strengthened EU-Japan partnership—for the Western Balkans has never been greater.

Masanori Oyama is CEO of Western Balkans Research Lab LLC, as well as Senior Regional Specialist for Support to the implementation of the EU-Japan Connectivity Partnership. Previously, he held the position as Adviser at the Embassy of Japan to Serbia.